Midterm Assessment 2020
Political Research (POL252)
• The coursework will be posted on QMPlus on 19 February 2019, and is due on 8 March at 23:55. Please
follow all designated SPIR submission guidelines for online submission as detailed on the POL252
QMPlus page. Standard late submission penalties apply.
• This is an assessed piece of coursework (worth 40% of your final module mark) for the POL252 module;
collaboration and/or discussion of the coursework with anyone is strictly prohibited. The rules for
plagiarism apply and any cases of suspected plagiarism of published work or the work of classmates will
be taken seriously.
• As this is an assessed piece of work, you may not email/ask the course tutors questions about the
• Along with the coursework itself, the datasets for the coursework can be found in the POL252 page on
• Coursework should be submitted via the appropriate link on the course QMPlus page.
– Please remember to state ONLY your student number on your coursework. Your name must not
appear on your coursework.
• Answers should be written in complete sentences. Be sure to answer all parts of the questions posed
and interpret the results.
• The word count for this assessment is 2000 words. This does not include the appendix (i.e. the R
code), or any words or numbers contained in plots and tables. Please note that full sentences included
in tables will form part of the word count. You WILL NOT be penalised for writing less than 2,000
words. But you WILL be penalised if you write more than 2,000 words.
• Please submit your work in a single document. Create an appendix section at the end which contains
all the R code needed to reproduce your results (you do not need to include the code that failed to run,
but just the cleaned-up version. Your code has to work when we run it). Failure to include the R code
means that the coursework will be marked incomplete.
• You may assume the methods you have used (e.g. descriptive statistics, t-tests, etc) are understood by
the reader and do not need definitions, but you do need to explain the intuition of these methods.
• Round all numbers to two digits after the decimal point.
• Do not copy and paste any brute R output (e.g. qt(.975, 21)) into your answers. Create a minimally
formatted table, if appropriate.
• Assign every table and figure a title and a number and refer to the number in the text when discussing
a specific figure or table.
Structure of the blog post
Your response should read like a single piece (i.e. as a post and not as separate answers). The main parts
1. A short introduction explaining the task and the main findings.
2. A brief justification for theories posited below. You should include some references to back them up.
3. The results, where you include your table and graphs (see below). This is the section where you interpret
4. A conclusion section where you discuss your findings and propose other potential explanations for the
Brexit Vote (again, see below).
The following list of variables is your codebook:
|Press Association constituency number.
Name of the Constituency according to the Electoral Commission.
|BrexitVote||Estimated share of votes for Brexit in the EU referendum in each
constituency (Hanretty, 2017).
0 if the constituency is located outside of London and 1 if it is inside. It’s a
Scotland, England or Wales.
|Region||Regional divisions of Great Britain.|
|Winner15||Party that won in the constituency in 2015.|
|Con15||Share of votes for the Conservatives in 2015.|
|Lab15||Share of votes for Labour in 2015.|
|LD15||Share of votes for the Liberal Democrats in 2015.|
|SNP15||Share of votes for the Scottish National Party in 2015.|
|PC15||Share of votes for Plaid Cymru in 2015.|
|UKIP15||Share of votes for UKIP in 2015.|
|Green15||Share of votes for the Greens in 2015.|
|Other15||Share of votes for other parties in 2015.|
|Majority15||Difference between the winner and the second party in each constituency.|
|Turnout15||Turnout in each constituency in 2015.|
|BornUK||% of people in the constituency born in the UK (Census 2011).|
|PercFemale||% of women in the constituency (Census 2011).|
|PopulationDensity||Average number of people per square mile in each constituency (Census
You are a prominent academic that works on voting behaviour in the UK. This is July 2016 and you have
been contacted by a major news outlet to write a blog post explaining your main theories about the reasons
behind the Brexit vote. After some careful considerations, you have three main theories that you would like
to test and write up the results:
1. This is an anti-London reaction, which is reflected by a large difference in the votes for the referendum
in London, compared to the rest of the country.
2. This is the result of rising immigration. People living in areas with a higher proportion of immigrants
voted for Brexit as a way to regain control on immigration.
3. This is the work of UKIP. Their surprising results in 2015 were simply a warning of what was about to
come. UKIP vote is a good predictor of the referendum outcome.
In order to answer these questions, you should first examine the relevant variables individually (i.e. BrexitVote,
London, BornUK and UKIP15). For that, your blog post should contain a table with all the variables, the
relevant measure of central tendency (MCT), and the relevant measure of dispersion (MD). The table should
look like this:
|Variable||MCT||MCT||MD||Value of the MD|
|Name of the relevant||Value of the||Name of the relevant|
BrexitVote · · · · · · · · · · · ·
Then, you should perform some recodes of the variables of interest, in particular, BornUK and UKIP15. For
each variable, create a corresponding binary variable where 0 corresponds to a value that is equal or below the
median, and 1 corresponds to a value above the median. You should make sure you name the new variables
in an intuitive way (e.g. BornUK_binary)
Once you do that, you should examine the relationship between the brexit vote share and the relevant
variables, For that, you will need to produce – for each theory – the following:
• A justification for the proposed relationship.
• A conditional distribution plot
• A two-sample t-test.
Finally, you should use the plots and the results from the t-tests to write up your blog post. You should
explain whether there is evidence to support your theories and how can they could be improved.
Here are some useful examples of blog posts that use empirical data and quantitative methods to discuss
political questions. You are welcome to use them as a reference for the writing style and organisation:
1. Profs. Tim Bale and Paul D. Webb on the Labour leadership race
2. Prof. Chris Hanretty on how voters punish (or not) their MPs for the stances they take
3. Profs. Carolina Plescia, André Blais and John Högström on How voters dislike disproportionality
4. Dr. Zac Greene and Dr. Javier Sajuria on Who gets to speak at Labour’s Party Conference
5. Dr. Nicole Martin and Dr. Scott Blinder on Whether voters are rejudiced or not against ethnic minority
6. Victoria Donnaloja on National identification and political engagement after naturalisation
7. Neema Begum on How inmmigration policy drives Brexit voters
Why Work with Us
Top Quality and Well-Researched Papers
We always make sure that writers follow all your instructions precisely. You can choose your academic level: high school, college/university or professional, and we will assign a writer who has a respective degree.
Professional and Experienced Academic Writers
We have a team of professional writers with experience in academic and business writing. Many are native speakers and able to perform any task for which you need help.
Free Unlimited Revisions
If you think we missed something, send your order for a free revision. You have 10 days to submit the order for review after you have received the final document. You can do this yourself after logging into your personal account or by contacting our support.
Prompt Delivery and 100% Money-Back-Guarantee
All papers are always delivered on time. In case we need more time to master your paper, we may contact you regarding the deadline extension. In case you cannot provide us with more time, a 100% refund is guaranteed.
Original & Confidential
We use several writing tools checks to ensure that all documents you receive are free from plagiarism. Our editors carefully review all quotations in the text. We also promise maximum confidentiality in all of our services.
24/7 Customer Support
Our support agents are available 24 hours a day 7 days a week and committed to providing you with the best customer experience. Get in touch whenever you need any assistance.
Try it now!
How it works?
Follow these simple steps to get your paper done
Place your order
Fill in the order form and provide all details of your assignment.
Proceed with the payment
Choose the payment system that suits you most.
Receive the final file
Once your paper is ready, we will email it to you.
No need to work on your paper at night. Sleep tight, we will cover your back. We offer all kinds of writing services.
No matter what kind of academic paper you need and how urgent you need it, you are welcome to choose your academic level and the type of your paper at an affordable price. We take care of all your paper needs and give a 24/7 customer care support system.
Admission Essays & Business Writing Help
An admission essay is an essay or other written statement by a candidate, often a potential student enrolling in a college, university, or graduate school. You can be rest assurred that through our service we will write the best admission essay for you.
Our academic writers and editors make the necessary changes to your paper so that it is polished. We also format your document by correctly quoting the sources and creating reference lists in the formats APA, Harvard, MLA, Chicago / Turabian.
If you think your paper could be improved, you can request a review. In this case, your paper will be checked by the writer or assigned to an editor. You can use this option as many times as you see fit. This is free because we want you to be completely satisfied with the service offered.